It's 2019 so Let's Play Dead Ass Mafia!!!

I didn't give Poppet leniency. I gave him time to reason out his behavior. The same thing I did with Error. The same thing I'm doing with you.

Yes, discussion is a town's weapon but your reasoning for it isn't convincing. You didn't even state your reasons why you voted for Exile in your first post and you went ahead with it even though you know accidentally lynching a townie is game over.

I'm not buying it.

Let me be real: would you guys really, really listen to me and vote for Exile?

I tried to stir a conversation, then Exile went and aimed at you, Zero instead. And led to a more fruitful conversation. And I’m here like, “ma, I wanna be useful.”

And I did state the reasons I suspected Exile already.

Arch's suspicion on Exile: https://imgur.com/gallery/dY7YKIw and http://prntscr.com/pf1y4v

I'll make my final vote by D4 depending on the results.

So, before we end the day, what motivation does the Mafia have to kill Arch? We've worn the Xyskal route, but what about Arch's?

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Originally Posted by Xate

So, before we end the day, what motivation does the Mafia have to kill Arch? We've worn the Xyskal route, but what about Arch's?

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This will be the first time I'll withhold information because depending on what happens on N3, I'll have a good idea of who it is using Arch's death.

Now, if the majority thinks I should state it, then I will but I highly recommend I don't because I don't want the Mafia to know what it is.

I will, however, give out a hint for you Xate just because it's not easily seen: Read through my posts in D2 and you'll see it.

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Originally Posted by Xate

#vote No-lynch

While I doubt Exile, I do think my case on him is pretty circumstantial. Arch 100% is focused on him (2 pics to be attached), as well as his (luckily) getting rid of the Ex-mod role. In a way, this minimizes the impact of the role on the meta game. Aside from Zero who’s invulnerable to night kills, everyone else is useless.

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If Exile was a mafia, HOW is Poppet's new role even relevant to the discussion? Poppet was on the block way before his role was changed by Exile.

How is Arch being focused on Exile proof of anything? He's also a townie and he knows as much about the allegiances just as much as the town does.

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Originally Posted by Xate

I also realized that Xyskal was the one who claimed he was a Regular User, without any outside confirmation until his death. Maybe the mafia wanted to see what his actual role was to make sure he wasn’t lying somehow, despite his inexperience.

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Stop dwelling on the Xyskal kill. If you've been paying attention, you'd notice how literally nothing has come out of that discussion.

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Originally Posted by Xate

As for me, and why I’m being illogical about the no-lynch day, it’s because of the following reasons:

1. Discussion is the town’s weapon. Having an uneventful day is bad.

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Who said a no lynch day meant no discussion day?

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Originally Posted by Xate

1.5 Exile not piling on me for being irrational made me doubt Exile being a mafia, despite me giving him a pretty large opening. There’s only a 20% chance of reverse psychology here, but it lessens his odds.

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So you doubt Exile is a mafia? Why did you vote for him??[/quote]

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Originally Posted by Xate

2. Letting the mafia decide who to pick off can let him reshape the circumstance to his liking. Imagine him leaving 2 people who are against me alive and build his case around me. This logic of “why is he still alive” also applies to Exile. While we can theoretically get rid of one wrong option, we also lose that person’s contribution and observation, which can be game changing.
2.5. In return, we get another death to investigate, which may or may not be useful.

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This is true, but you're just IGNORING the fact that voting for someone has a higher chance that we lose altogether. Not a single townie is more important than the whole town winning.

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Originally Posted by Xate

3. Looking at the discussion, Exile and Zero sure are focused on Xyskal case. What about Arch’s?

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What more about Arch's death can you surmise, other than the fact that he privately told you he was going for Exile? It would have made sense if Exile knew this was coming and wanted to preempt it, but I don't think Exile even knows this. He's been vocal about being on the same team as Arch the whole game. If I'm to investigate Arch's death, it's entirely possible that you held on to this screenshot as you killed Arch last night so you can paint Exile to have the motive to kill Arch.

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Originally Posted by Xate

4. As per Smile’s observation of my quote, it would seem as if I already knew what happened. Let me ask if a Mafia would really, really paint that big of a target on his back and not keep quiet. Being a Mafia can potentially make a person really safe with their plays to reduce the amount of clues they give off. I guess this is why Zero’s probability is pretty low, as does Smile’s. Exile got 2 things against him, Arch’s suspicion (which may not be correct) and Exile’s erroneous Regular User reporting.

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I would believe that if you were the mafia, then you absolutely would really, really paint that big of a target on your back.

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Originally Posted by Xate

EDIT: Arch's suspicion on Exile: https://imgur.com/gallery/dY7YKIw and http://prntscr.com/pf1y4v

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This really only makes me more suspicious of you. You're the only one who knows Arch's suspicion on Exile, you're the one who gains the most out of Arch's death if you're mafia.

Also can you guys unvote no lynch for now? There's more discussion to be had and I don't think we should be rushing into the night right now

#unvote nolynch

Yeah, sure thing.

I more or less already have my lynch picks on me and just waiting for D4 to be double sure. I don't know about you guys but I'm still going for a no-lynch day today just because it has the highest probability of town winning. The stuff Xate is saying are things I've already questioned from the start of D3 and he hasn't given me a convincing answer thus far. So, at this point, I'd just be repeating myself. He just looks desperate to want Exile dead, made some bold claims like he knows he won't die on N3, and made votes on the day with the highest chance of losing if we mislynch for no reason.

I'm also in favor of no lynch, but I'd just like to make doubly sure about my vote tomorrow if I'm still alive.

I'll wait for a day or so -- If no development happens with Xate, I'm putting back my vote for a nolynch. Alternatively, you can just do it Smile if you feel whenever since you were the one who requested to call it off for a bit.

I highly doubt Xate would give something new for me to be less suspicious of his bold claims but, eh, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and see what he can come up with.

I, unfortunately, have nothing new to add to the discussion.

Arch did mention that he contacted multiple people, including me and Zero. Since the contents are similar, it's also right to assume that he approached multiple people to form alliances, as per Exile's metagaming observation. Therefore, I am not the only person who have access to this information to pull off the play. Smile, you could've been one of those Arch contacted too, even if you claimed Arch was focused only on you and not Exile. You also didn't answer a question of Arch's, which made him suspicious of you.

As for why I vote for Exile despite my "doubt", the train of thought is as such:

1. Accuse Exile to stir up discussion and not let this day go by without discussions. Furthermore, knowing Zero's and Exile's way of thinking, they won't simply let that vote slide that easily. You're not taken into account as Zero's vote is required.

2. Exile completely ignored me as he went after Zero, who also mentioned his not piling on me despite my obviously shady play. Arch did have a suspicion about him, but he can be wrong about Exile. Therefore, it's a possibility that Exile is innocent. But of course, doubt still exists.

As for the remaining 2 players, Zero and Smile...

3. Zero can potentially play as a hyper accusatory and analytical solo player due to not having to worry about covering for a teammate. However, he has made zero missteps that could be disadvantageous for the town. Also sensibly slapped down my egregious plays BUT doesn't stubbornly push for it, like a Mafia would love to for a free kill.

4. Smile was the one who fired the first shot at me on day one when Poppete immediately tagged along, unlike Exile's vote for Arch. However, he was the one who investigated Poppete and voted against him because of Poppete's inactivity (not explaining his desire to not have his role revealed) Also pointed out how no one came to Poppete's defense. He also took initiative of using his Animator ability, potentially putting himself at risk (but the role metagame could be a red herring if it doesn't involve ex-mod, troll, or bot)

Both of these 2's cases are flimsy, and Exile's action made me doubt my accusation and Arch's suspicion. Overall, I have zero idea which of the 3 are mafias.

As for what you can gain from Arch's death, well, I'm not good enough yet to see it and will need more time during today to digest it.