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Thread: It's 2019 so Let's Play Dead Ass Mafia!!!

  1. #251
    salad days are gone Exile's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zero View Post
    You're right -- You did bring up the point of looking back at the situation. My concern was that we were tunnel visioned focus on Poppet's connection as a mafia to other players v.s Xyskal's death where no discussion was made at all. The players barely mentioned or chimed in their input regarding Xyskal and only made inputs on Poppet -- including you.
    Right, everyone was guilty of it, except for Smile who tried to make a few points here, but go back and read them, do you feel like they're helping us right now? Are we better off for analyzing this?

    I just re-read everything after the post you're attacking me for ignoring, and the contribution toward that discussion from Arch and Error can be summed up as "Xyskal died and I have no idea why". I'm in the same exact boat.

    I recognize the potential in analyzing the previous day after the allegiance of players are confirmed post-mortem, that's why I urged other people to do it, in case they catch something I missed. I was the first to do what you suggested, before you suggested it, and I came up with nothing. Same as pretty much everyone else.

    When you brought up Xyskal's death again, in a way that implied you were the first to bring it up when you weren't, I ignored your post because I already covered it and it seemed like you missed the fact that I did. The few comments about what it could mean weren't compelling to me. So I just replied to Arch and said I have nothing to bring to the table.

    I didn't expect to have to defend any of this. Arch and Error said basically the same thing as me, after I said it, and they've both since been confirmed as townies. This shouldn't be a reason to suspect me of being mafia and I'm amazed that so much focus has been spent on this.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zero
    I'm sorry but how would I know if you were being specific to my post or just said it in general? In my perspective, you were responding to Arch when he called you out. You know very well that it could be used against you because the possibility of you just purposefully ignoring it was there as well, thus me calling you out on it for verification.
    I was responding to Arch. Hopefully in the context of everything I said above you'll understand why I had no reason to even consider the possibility that you'd find this suspicious. I can't purposefully ignore something when I was literally the first person to bring it up and the first person to do what you suggested.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zero
    Let's assume I was the mafia -- Even then, why would I bring up the point of Xyskal again in light if it'll only bite me back in the ass if a player catches on to a clue (e.g: You). Isn't that counter productive of my goal to win as a mafia?
    Not really. The entire point of the town is that they're the uninformed majority, and the more time spent analyzing what little information we have, the better.

    The entire point of the mafia is to blend in with the town, which means publicly pretending to play to their win condition, which means they're going to need to participate in some analysis at some point. This is inherently risky and the suggestion that taking that risk is evidence that you're not mafia doesn't really hold up when that's what the mafia needs to do to pull off a win.

    What you've accomplished in the last 72 hours or so is forcing much of the discussion to be about something that makes absolutely no fucking sense, which is Xyskal dying night 1. Something that pretty much everyone else agreed was a dead end. Something that you, as mafia, could have orchestrated. This isn't a crazy thought.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zero
    That's understandable but just as how you're scrutinizing me now for making posts beneficial and contributing to town as a way to potentially hide me as a mafia, you're also subject to the same suspicion of stating I could get the Ex-Mod role by gaining my favor and then using that as a leverage when it's time to steer the discussion to lynch me or to someone else until we're the last man standing, which would spell game over
    I guess but I wouldn't expect such a minor thing to 'gain your favor' after how much you've hammered me over one post. I certainly wouldn't expect it to convince anyone else, it's just common sense, you're the most active player so you're a decent candidate for a night kill. If you're mafia it doesn't help you in any way but it's worth the protection in case you're a townie. Worth more than protecting Xate at least. This doesn't exonerate me but since only one other player even suggested you take it I think it's worth bringing up.

    But if we're going to follow your line of logic, where I'm mafia and I've done all of this to prepare for getting the town to kill you the next day.... why would I do that? You've literally been the safest player in the game thus far and you haven't been a threat to me in any way, why would I risk trying to steer the entire town against you when I could just pile onto Xate or even Smile? This is just unnecessarily risky and makes more sense in the context of a townie trying to get information about another player, rather than mafia trying to take out the safest player in the game when better alternatives exist.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zero
    Or you could be mafia and know who is exactly town and who isn't. No one knew if Arch was a townie or a mafia at that point in time and it was our job to weed them out through discussion.
    Look our allegiances are going to come out eventually and when I'm confirmed townie, I want it known that I'm proud that I knew arch was on my team. I know how he plays and when I saw other players trying to lynch him I defended him to the benefit of the town. If I were mafia I could have easily piled onto him based on his erratic behavior and quite frankly I was hoping I'd have the chance to do so, considering he's the guy who made voting for me round 1 a meme. Unfortunately I knew he was a teammate and I did what I had to do to defend him. Again, it's unfortunate that this has become a reason for people to suspect me as mafia.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zero
    Sure, how he plays is a good insight to have but I'm more focused on the content of their posts because it sounds like I'd be meta-ing him if I used that as my main meat of the argument. Which is also why I'm not bringing up the fact that, on most games, you'd almost always be the first one to die on N1. If I used this against you, it wouldn't be right and it wouldn't be fair in your part as we should treat each game separately and look at what the player's say in this game instead of looking back on what happened to them in previous games.
    You should be using it against me, it's fucking weird that I've survived this long and I'm almost angry at whoever let me survive until now. How the fuck do I make a case for myself and against a remaining player that's more compelling than "Exile's still alive day 3, he's probably mafia".

    Your restraint on that alone is grounds for me to think you're not mafia but at the same time there's everything else I mentioned. You're an enigma. I'll wait to hear your response before I change my vote. I still need to re-read the last day with the knowledge of Error's allegiance and I'll make a proper follow-up another time.
    Last edited by Exile; 10-03-2019 at 11:03 PM.

  2. #252
    ★★★★★ Zero's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Exile View Post
    Right, everyone was guilty of it, except for Smile who tried to make a few points here, but go back and read them, do you feel like they're helping us right now? Are we better off for analyzing this?
    Of course not but like I stated, with discussion coming to a crawl, I brought it up as every little thing counts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Exile View Post
    I just re-read everything after the post you're attacking me for ignoring, and the contribution toward that discussion from Arch and Error can be summed up as "Xyskal died and I have no idea why". I'm in the same exact boat.

    I recognize the potential in analyzing the previous day after the allegiance of players are confirmed post-mortem, that's why I urged other people to do it, in case they catch something I missed. I was the first to do what you suggested, before you suggested it, and I came up with nothing. Same as pretty much everyone else.

    When you brought up Xyskal's death again, in a way that implied you were the first to bring it up when you weren't, I ignored your post because I already covered it and it seemed like you missed the fact that I did. The few comments about what it could mean weren't compelling to me. So I just replied to Arch and said I have nothing to bring to the table.
    I see -- My main point is that I didn't find any substantial discussion with regards to Xyskal when you pointed it out as everyone was focused on Poppet and I thought that was a good discussion matter for us to have since we were exhausting all our options.

    Quote Originally Posted by Exile View Post
    I didn't expect to have to defend any of this. Arch and Error said basically the same thing as me, after I said it, and they've both since been confirmed as townies. This shouldn't be a reason to suspect me of being mafia and I'm amazed that so much focus has been spent on this.
    Because it's the only thing I find you suspicious for. You yourself should know very well that even the smallest of things can be used against you if there's even an inkling of suspicion that can be traced to it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Exile View Post
    Not really. The entire point of the town is that they're the uninformed majority, and the more time spent analyzing what little information we have, the better.

    The entire point of the mafia is to blend in with the town, which means publicly pretending to play to their win condition, which means they're going to need to participate in some analysis at some point. This is inherently risky and the suggestion that taking that risk is evidence that you're not mafia doesn't really hold up when that's what the mafia needs to do to pull off a win.

    What you've accomplished in the last 72 hours or so is forcing much of the discussion to be about something that makes absolutely no fucking sense, which is Xyskal dying night 1. Something that pretty much everyone else agreed was a dead end. Something that you, as mafia, could have orchestrated. This isn't a crazy thought.
    That's precisely why I'm grilling everyone and being attentive to the littlest of details because anyone could be a mafia blending in town. Why do you make it sound like the only thing I've done and bring to the discussion is me going around Xyskal? The only time I've focused on the Xyskal topic so much is because it's my suspicious point with you and I wanted to call you out on it and here we are discussing about it. I've given my say regarding Xate, Arch, Smile, and Error on D2 and I was awaiting for their responses. With Xate still using his "That's just who I am" card and with Error giving sub-par reasons.


    Quote Originally Posted by Exile View Post
    I guess but I wouldn't expect such a minor thing to 'gain your favor' after how much you've hammered me over one post. I certainly wouldn't expect it to convince anyone else, it's just common sense, you're the most active player so you're a decent candidate for a night kill. If you're mafia it doesn't help you in any way but it's worth the protection in case you're a townie. Worth more than protecting Xate at least. This doesn't exonerate me but since only one other player even suggested you take it I think it's worth bringing up.
    Don't make it sound like me being suspicious of you is sudden and out of the blue. I've listed you as my #2 list since Day 2 and it is only now that I hammered the vote because you yourself hammered the vote on me suddenly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Exile View Post
    But if we're going to follow your line of logic, where I'm mafia and I've done all of this to prepare for getting the town to kill you the next day.... why would I do that? You've literally been the safest player in the game thus far and you haven't been a threat to me in any way, why would I risk trying to steer the entire town against you when I could just pile onto Xate or even Smile? This is just unnecessarily risky and makes more sense in the context of a townie trying to get information about another player, rather than mafia trying to take out the safest player in the game when better alternatives exist.
    Hmm, I was taking the idea into consideration that it could be possible. I don't know. Maybe the others could chime in on this one and have a different perspective. Personally, what you say makes sense and I don't disagree with you there.

    Quote Originally Posted by Exile View Post
    You should be using it against me, it's fucking weird that I've survived this long and I'm almost angry at whoever let me survive until now. How the fuck do I make a case for myself and against a remaining player that's more compelling than "Exile's still alive day 3, he's probably mafia".

    Your restraint on that alone is grounds for me to think you're not mafia but at the same time there's everything else I mentioned. You're an enigma. I'll wait to hear your response before I change my vote. I still need to re-read the last day with the knowledge of Error's allegiance and I'll make a proper follow-up another time.
    It goes against my principles and I don't think it's fair for a player to defend against a me meta-ing them. Like I said, it's a good insight but I don't want it to be the main meat of my argument. At best, it's a supporting argument if ever I do plan to use it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Exile View Post
    I was responding to Arch. Hopefully in the context of everything I said above you'll understand why I had no reason to even consider the possibility that you'd find this suspicious. I can't purposefully ignore something when I was literally the first person to bring it up and the first person to do what you suggested.
    At this point, we're just repeating ourselves and going in circles.

    I believe this entire back and forth argument of us with me being suspicious of you was due to my misunderstanding of your post. You came up with solid counter arguments against my suspicious points regarding the Xyskal argument and I don't think I can find a loophole with your reasoning, even if I were to nitpick it. So I'm taking my vote off of you for now.

    #unvote Exile

    Whether you want to do the same to me or not is up to you but, personally, there are better options right now. I also don't know if it's because you're just damn good at being Mafia or you really are a townie but I can't find a good reason to use my lynch vote onto you even if I were to nitpick everything you said after this lengthy exchange of ours. I just hope this decision doesn't bite me back in the ass.

    With the recent development between my suspicions with Exile, I will announce it now that I don't plan to lynch anyone for Day 3 because I still believe it will net the highest probability for town to win unless something major pops out and convinces me otherwise.
    Last edited by Zero; 10-04-2019 at 12:27 AM.




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  3. #253
    salad days are gone Exile's Avatar
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    #unvote Zero

    I think a no-lynch is our best bet too. The remaining townies will have a 50/50 shot at getting the mafia, I don't think we'll be able to reduce our way into odds like those during this round.

  4. #254
    Junior Memeber Smile's Avatar
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    I really don't like completely writing off anyone, but based on this recent back-and-forth, Xate is the mafia by deduction.

    With the context of Error being mafia, I'd like to give attention to this question:
    Quote Originally Posted by Xate View Post
    If Error were a townie, then what next, actually? Would we have any clues if any of the contributing members die?

    Or would I die to cast doubt on the useful people? I guess we'll wait and see.
    Is it just me that finds it weird? I mean, I know I also said there would be less information if Error's death confirms he's town, but Xate outright asks everyone what we should do if it happens as if he's confident it will happen. This is after he's been one of the most critical when it came to Error.


    He's also the first one to fire, insisting that a nolynch was bad for the town. I'll also agree with not lynching anyone today, but if Xate isn't dead tomorrow my money's on him.

    @HEWITT I HAVE A QUESTION
    1. Does town win if the remaining players are the exmod and the mafia?
    2. Would it be possible to #vote nolynch? Like if everyone's already made up their minds already, can we end the day with that?

  5. #255
    ★★★★★ Zero's Avatar
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    Smile, Xate, whoever of you is the townie, it would be of our best interest as well to set a no-lynch for D3. I will be honest and say that this is the first time in the entire game that I am stumped if I should vote or not. I don't know if I should lynch now because hitting the wrong player would immediately mean game over.

    Our odds tomorrow of lynching the mafia will at least be higher than versus today.

    Quote Originally Posted by Smile View Post
    Is it just me that finds it weird? I mean, I know I also said there would be less information if Error's death confirms he's town, but Xate outright asks everyone what we should do if it happens as if he's confident it will happen. This is after he's been one of the most critical when it came to Error.

    He's also the first one to fire, insisting that a nolynch was bad for the town. I'll also agree with not lynching anyone today, but if Xate isn't dead tomorrow my money's on him.

    Xate has been on my top picks since D1 but I'll be honest with you, until just recently with his posts in D3, my only reason for voting him off was mainly because of his incompetency and it doesn't sit right with me.

    I don't mean that I'm letting him off the hook. His D3 posts are definitely telling that he's saying things that a townie shouldn't and making actions that a mafia would most likely make. I'm just saying that I want to withhold my vote up until D4 and make my final decision there when I see the results.
    Last edited by Zero; 10-04-2019 at 08:39 AM.




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  6. #256
    Junior Memeber Smile's Avatar
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    My suspicion on xate isn't mostly hinged on his incompetency, because that post I quoted as well as his first post today does bother me. He's the one most excited to jump the gun and vote for someone, and he disagreed with a nolynch without addressing your point about probability. Instead he just made up some bullshit, which is telling of his allegiance in my eyes.

  7. #257
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smile View Post
    @HEWITT I HAVE A QUESTION
    1. Does town win if the remaining players are the exmod and the mafia?
    2. Would it be possible to #vote nolynch? Like if everyone's already made up their minds already, can we end the day with that?

    1) Remember that Mafia's goal is to either eliminate the town or tie with them, so yes if they're the only ones left, Maf wins.

    2) Yes. Actually, forgot to mention that this was always an option. I thought my Rule 3 in my update posts was clear enough.

    But I will also accept a thread that has not had any activity in approx. 2 days. This game's different than the others because no one is inactive or anything.

  8. #258
    ★★★★★ Zero's Avatar
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    #vote nolynch

    I have no idea when Xate is coming on to explain his side but I'll cast my vote now to make it official.
    Last edited by Zero; 10-04-2019 at 10:08 AM.




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  9. #259
    salad days are gone Exile's Avatar
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    #vote nolynch
    Hoping to hear from Xate again before the day ends.
    Last edited by Exile; 10-04-2019 at 12:18 PM.

  10. #260
    Unlimited Potential Xate's Avatar
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    #vote No-lynch

    While I doubt Exile, I do think my case on him is pretty circumstantial. Arch 100% is focused on him (2 pics to be attached), as well as his (luckily) getting rid of the Ex-mod role. In a way, this minimizes the impact of the role on the meta game. Aside from Zero who’s invulnerable to night kills, everyone else is useless.

    I also realized that Xyskal was the one who claimed he was a Regular User, without any outside confirmation until his death. Maybe the mafia wanted to see what his actual role was to make sure he wasn’t lying somehow, despite his inexperience.

    I mildly doubt Zero if only because of the possibility that he was playing as the solo Mafia doubting everybody, without having to cover someone else’s ass anymore. He was the one who gave Poppete leniency before voting, but then again, he’s probably cautious. We did lynched people based on being overly cautious.

    I have to wonder a bit about Smile too, using his Animator role to “put himself at risk of night kill” to give everyone’s information and be useful. But he was the first to press Poppete, if I recall correctly, and that’s not a Mafia move at all.

    As for me, and why I’m being illogical about the no-lynch day, it’s because of the following reasons:

    1. Discussion is the town’s weapon. Having an uneventful day is bad.
    1.5 Exile not piling on me for being irrational made me doubt Exile being a mafia, despite me giving him a pretty large opening. There’s only a 20% chance of reverse psychology here, but it lessens his odds.

    2. Letting the mafia decide who to pick off can let him reshape the circumstance to his liking. Imagine him leaving 2 people who are against me alive and build his case around me. This logic of “why is he still alive” also applies to Exile. While we can theoretically get rid of one wrong option, we also lose that person’s contribution and observation, which can be game changing.
    2.5. In return, we get another death to investigate, which may or may not be useful.

    3. Looking at the discussion, Exile and Zero sure are focused on Xyskal case. What about Arch’s?

    4. As per Smile’s observation of my quote, it would seem as if I already knew what happened. Let me ask if a Mafia would really, really paint that big of a target on his back and not keep quiet. Being a Mafia can potentially make a person really safe with their plays to reduce the amount of clues they give off. I guess this is why Zero’s probability is pretty low, as does Smile’s. Exile got 2 things against him, Arch’s suspicion (which may not be correct) and Exile’s erroneous Regular User reporting.

    EDIT: Arch's suspicion on Exile: https://imgur.com/gallery/dY7YKIw and http://prntscr.com/pf1y4v
    Last edited by Xate; 10-04-2019 at 06:16 PM.
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