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Rabbit Doubt Returns: The Discussion: The Game: The Discussion

Started by: Gyohdon | Replies: 1,539 | Views: 63,266

Purp3L

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Jan 27, 2014 10:15 PM #1147810
k. I choose Raptor
Zed
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Jan 27, 2014 10:18 PM #1147811
Quote from Purp3L
He's more likely to become a wolf in my opinion.


Probability is not an opinion. Although on some philosophical worldviews it is always either 100% or 0%. Nevertheless, even epistemic possibility is objective coming from a given speaker since whether or not certain information necessarily entails certain conclusions is a metaphysically predetermined fact.

What I'm saying is, tell us why you think this?

Quote from FruitDatLoop
Raptor in all my years I've participated in many inquiries. Not only, have I helped in investigations I've also read and masturbated to several Children's fairy tales. Though, one of those fairy tales that stuck out to me often was The Three Little Pigs. Through great intellectual partaking of research of this tale, I've learned Wolves often have a great aggressive behavior towards accusers. See here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1486185/; "Set in a medieval village that is haunted by a werewolf, a young girl falls for an orphaned woodcutter, much to her family's displeasure." To me that sounds like domestic abuse, and what you appear to be doing with Goody Purp3l is just that. You seem to be showing great Wolf-Like behavior around these parts of the Forums, I mean, just look at your signature, Predatory signs from victims, through mere words like "Raptor Please." I rest my case here, RAPTOR IS THE WOLF. GYOHDON JUST WANTED TO BE A GIRL SCOUT BUT YOU'VE TAKEN HIS WISHES.


I like this guy. Let's not hang him for a while.



The larger the ratio of rabbits to wolves, the more benefit the wolves gain from us lynching at random. It decreases the odds of us successfully finding a wolf and it makes it more urgent for the wolves to eliminate people quickly before too many clues can be revealed. It also means that each individual rabbit gains less from trying to lynch the wolves immediately, since there is a greater chance of survival until the next day (and those of us who expect to be killed off by wolves early on gain little because there will be at least two wolves out there - even if we get lucky and lynch one, the other will kill us anyway). Unless someone finds some solid evidence in the information we have so far, we should not lynch anyone.
Purp3L

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Jan 27, 2014 10:22 PM #1147813
Quote from Zed
Probability is not an opinion. Although on some philosophical worldviews it is always either 100% or 0%. Nevertheless, even epistemic possibility is objective coming from a given speaker since whether or not certain information necessarily entails certain conclusions is a metaphysically predetermined fact.

What I'm saying is, tell us why you think this?



I forfeited my opinion- or false accusation already. (:
Sorry about that.
FruitDatLoop

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Jan 27, 2014 10:24 PM #1147816
Quote from Zed

I like this guy. Let's not hang him for a while.


I agree, that guy seems like he knows what he's talking about.
Fries
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Jan 27, 2014 10:25 PM #1147817
Quote from FruitDatLoop
I agree, that guy seems like he knows what he's talking about.


Yes, yes, I agr- wait...
Gyohdon
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Jan 27, 2014 10:27 PM #1147819
I have updated the rules with the following:

- Voting to hang someone is not mandatory.
- You can't post here if you die (or are simply not part of the game). Me excluded, obviously.


I will now only post here every time for the update at 6PM GMT.
Zed
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Jan 27, 2014 11:05 PM #1147838
Let's take a look at the available information.

Quote from Gyohdon
(The game has started and wolves have been notified. Good luck, Rabbits. Don't trust anyone.)


Appears not to be part of the important text. Looking through the list of participants I can't find anyone called "anyone". It does imply that there are a plurality of wolves, i.e. at least two, but we could already infer that from the large number of players.

The members all came together. 30 of them, all at the entrance of Rabet, an island resort in the Caribbean.


Making a note of the location, although I can't see any reason why it would be important off the top of my head.

Everyone was chatting with each other, while one member, Gyohdon, kept complaining. "Oh god, it's way too hot jesus". "There's bugs everywhere, god damn". Kind of annoying, thought the other members.


This has to be important. (Although it's completely understandable. I made complaints like this on my summer holidays and I was only in Romania; the Caribbean must be horrible.) These are specific details which are superfluous to the story, although they could be here as a distraction.

"Pox" is something which I would associate with disease and vermin. Bugs everywhere?
"FruitDatLoop", "Plasmaghost", and, more likely, "Fries" are all things which could be associated with heat or hot climates.
Naoleon was exiled to Elba, which has a tropical climate (at least, by my British standards I consider it tropical - it's off Northern Italy). "Exilement" maybe.
Mentioning "God" a lot - could be me? (I doubt it, since I'm not a wolf, but I should mention it for completeness.)

However, they would not let Gyohdon spoil the fun. When they entered the resort, they saw the mansion they would be sleeping in. Everyone had their own room, with bed and storage for clothes and other belongings, all locked with their own key. Everyone unpacked and spent the rest of the day relaxing, swimming and playing games together.


Does this mean that at least one of the killers must be someone Gyohdon would trust well enough to let into his room? Consider this if in the future rooms have to be broken into. It would implicate myself, Jutsu, Exilement, Scarecrow, and probably some others but no one who is too new to be well-known. Of course, a newbie could be paired with a well-known member.

At night, the people that ran the resort would take their boat to the neighboring island where they stayed. All 30 members were completely isolated and together and it felt kinda cozy. When everyone agreed that it was late, just an hour past midnight, they all went to their rooms.


If everyone agrees it's late at 1am, could the killer have been letting everyone go to bed early? Calling 1am "late" isn't particularly suspicious for the younger members, for whom it will be well past their bed-times. But for me, Exilement, Scarecrow, or any other members who are old but whose ages I don't know, calling 1am "late" is a tad unorthodox. Maybe not Scarecrow - God only knows what his body clock is set to.

The next morning, everyone met at the canteen, where there were enough ingredients to eat for weeks.


Presumably just to fill in a potential plot-hole with the length of the game given the number of players.

Breakfast was great and everyone enjoyed themselves, until someone mentioned that Gyohdon wasn't there. Most just shrugged and continued eating their breakfast. Maybe he wussed out after all the "bugs" and "heat"? Whatever.


There it is again. Bugs and heat must be important.

However, when everyone left the canteen they realized something they missed before. Gyohdon was hanging from a tree in the central plaza, his face covered in blood. People screamed, some tried to get him down, but it didn't matter. He was gone.


Hanging from a tree and his face is covered in blood? Interesting. He must have been killed on the ground and then hung in the tree to make a point. This does not help us in any way.

But that was not all. If they were all alone on that island, that could mean only one thing. Whoever killed him was still there. Whoever killed him was among them. Right when people begun realizing this, they found a note left next to the tree, with a message on it.

"Let's have fun, Rabbits"



Who killed him? Who amongst you will you hang in order to save yourselves?


I checked, and "let's have fun, Rabbits," is not something Jutsu said in his games. This means nothing.




I'm seriously grasping at straws. There might not be any clues at all in the first death. This is just the best I can get out of anything so far. Also bear in mind that the clues could relate to facts about people that I wouldn't necessarily know. One of Jutsu's games involved clues referencing conversations that the wolf and Jutsu had previously had about video games. And I do not know the players of this game very well. (This is kind of an appeal to the wolves - please don't kill me because I don't know people as well as I used to know people and therefore I won't be much use in this game so you should target someone else. What about that Fries guy? He looks tasty.)
Vorpal
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Jan 27, 2014 11:10 PM #1147840
Quote from Zed

The larger the ratio of rabbits to wolves, the more benefit the wolves gain from us lynching at random. It decreases the odds of us successfully finding a wolf and it makes it more urgent for the wolves to eliminate people quickly before too many clues can be revealed. It also means that each individual rabbit gains less from trying to lynch the wolves immediately, since there is a greater chance of survival until the next day (and those of us who expect to be killed off by wolves early on gain little because there will be at least two wolves out there - even if we get lucky and lynch one, the other will kill us anyway). Unless someone finds some solid evidence in the information we have so far, we should not lynch anyone.

True.
But by bearing witness to the history of this game, I also understand why you'd have a natural aversion to early game lynching.

That said, I think Purp3L has painted a rather large bullseye on his back. From both players, and the wolves. If the wolves were smart they'd let us squabble and fight eachother.
Zed
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Jan 27, 2014 11:13 PM #1147844
Smart wolves would totally avoid killing the people we expect them to kill. That way we will suspect those people of being wolves, since why else would they not have been killed?

See what I'm saying, guys?
Vorpal
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Jan 27, 2014 11:17 PM #1147848
If I was the wolf, I would kill Purp3L.
Either for the sake of removing a chaotic and unreliable vote from the voting pool, or because Jutsu said that and it would make him appear to be the wolf.
Pox
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Jan 27, 2014 11:19 PM #1147850
Quote from Zed
Smart wolves would totally avoid killing the people we expect them to kill. That way we will suspect those people of being wolves, since why else would they not have been killed?

See what I'm saying, guys?


Yeah, expect the unexpected. I suggest a wolf might be one of the few people not talking much. Either that or they're just inactive.
Zed
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Jan 27, 2014 11:22 PM #1147852
Or asleep. We certainly shouldn't vote to kill anyone for at least, like, eighteen hours, just to make sure everyone has had a chance to provide input.
Hidro

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Jan 27, 2014 11:23 PM #1147854
blindly lynching someone is a risky move. Are we allowed to ask the exact number of wolves? I know the recommendations for this game are odd numbers and 2 wolves, but seeing there is a large amount of players, if we manage to kill a wolf early on, either by accident or not, the game might loose some of its attract.
So I think the first question is... are there truly 2 mafiosi?
Usually this games start with a "clean" first round, meaning no lynching.
Now for the repeated mentions of "hot" and "heat".
SC100-S21P
Interesting, huh?
Golden
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Jan 27, 2014 11:25 PM #1147856
Or the other 12 or so players died shortly after Gyohdon from food poisoning.
FruitDatLoop

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Jan 27, 2014 11:28 PM #1147859
Quote from Zed
Let's take a look at the available information.

"Pox" is something which I would associate with disease and vermin. Bugs everywhere?
"FruitDatLoop", "Plasmaghost", and, more likely, "Fries" are all things which could be associated with heat or hot climates.
Naoleon was exiled to Elba, which has a tropical climate (at least, by my British standards I consider it tropical - it's off Northern Italy). "Exilement" maybe.
Mentioning "God" a lot - could be me? (I doubt it, since I'm not a wolf, but I should mention it for completeness.)


Although you've pitted me relating to silly irrational claims such as heat or climate. You seem to be leading plenty of blame off of yourself with claims such as "(I doubt it, since I'm not a wolf, but I should mention it for completeness.)" or "(This is kind of an appeal to the wolves - please don't kill me because I don't know people as well as I used to know people and therefore I won't be much use in this game so you should target someone else. What about that Fries guy? He looks tasty.)" I've marked Fries' down in my checklist, and kept in mind of your post. You seem to have a lot of interest in this Fries fellow as he's been mentioned in your post once as a relation to climate, and the second time as a tasty treat for a Wolf. I'm interested to see how events turn out tomorrow, as things seem quiet for the moment in our little vacation home.

Edit: I will not withdraw my suspicion towards Raptor. That one has always stirred dirty looks around here.
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