Nay. If I'm doing the math right, even if we don't lynch today, we still can't get another day of discussion other than the day after this one. The night kills will still bring us down to enough numbers for the mafia to win. Someone please re-calculate though, I'm bad at math.

A day of discussion is very, very crucial to the town. It's the discussions and the lycnhs are the town weapons. I don't recommend ending the day just yet.

What kind of information do we need actually? Confirmed mafia to lynch, from a confirmed police? That's flat impossible. There'll be no information to be get if we don't seek them; this is why we discuss things. And as much I hate to admit it, grasping at straws and gut feelings are the best we have.

I say end the day because no matter what the day ends tomorrow, January 8th. I looked back at the start of day 2

I forgot about that tbh. So do we lynch or not? I'm not confident about my math. If it's right then we should lynch. And we can make it easier for Ultron to get the mafias too if we do lynch, the probability of it happening rises.

@ai there's 10 players left. 7 townies, 2 doombots and ultron. if we lynch tonight we can be faced with reducing the town's numbers to 4 if and only if:

a) the town lynches one of its own, there is a 70% chance of this occurring assuming the lynch is random which it isn't, but I'm sticking with worst case scenarios here.

b) the doombots kill a townie instead of ultron. obviously they won't target each other so their odds are 6 in 7. 86% this will happen.

c) ultron kills a townie instead of a doombot. ultron won't target himself so the odds here are 6/8. 75%


so collectively we're up against a 46% chance of Day 3 starting with 4 townies, 2 doombots and 1 ultron. for the game to end in the following night both night kills would have to be against townies once again. there's a 54% chance of this occurring.

the odds of this exact scenario playing out are almost exactly 1 in 4

there's a 30% chance that we'll kill a mafia or ultron just by random lynching tonight. the odds are so far more or less in the town's favor. that can change quite easily but we're not in any immediate danger even in the worst case scenario, it's more likely that something will happen in some manner to the town's advantage.


edit: there is also a chance the doombots and ultron will target the same player either night but I don't know how to factor it into these odds

I agree. Seems like tomorrow will be our last day most likely, whether we lynch or not. But the question is; who.

you agree, yet you say the exact opposite of what all that math exists to prove. read it again. there's a 75% chance that we will have two more days of discussion left after this one if we lynch tonight. if we don't lynch tonight, the game literally cannot end in two nights, we have 7 townies left and only two can die in each night. if we do make it to day 4 under these circumstances a random lynch on that day has a 50% shot of working.

the odds are absolutely not stacked against the town. if we screw up the lynch tonight (which has a 30% chance of succeeding, mind you) then there's only a 25% chance that everything will play out exactly the way it needs to for the mafia to win on night 3.

I have an idea. If we were to combine the shield with Apex's passive ability, we'd know who come to kill him! And should he die, then that'd mean the night would have only 1 death!

What do you guys think?

yes

That's not such bad odds, if we consider the 75%.

@Xate i dont think they'll target apex at all, lol.

Well, at least we'd have him as the one alive, counting 1 for Avengers.

Ah who am I kidding. He's Apex.

Yeah, it's pretty much saying that if we don't lynch we're in a very good position, but even if we lynch we're still in an optimal position thanks to the early Doombot death. So I really think that we can go either way and it won't hinder us all that much.

Also Xate, I like that idea but as Ai said, I doubt they would aim for Apex (Especially after you said that), plus, we're not sure if Apex is an avenger or not, especially since people are starting to wonder about him. We might be giving a shield to a doombot/ultron.

In my opinion, Apex is to be lynched either today or the day after, as "the lynch to turn to" because of his overall uselessness. Right now, we have a lot of fingers pointing around, so let's start there and cut down the list of possible suspects before we kill the ONLY inactive. (other than Cam)

Man, his ability's application sure is small.

I still say Camila's been acting suspiciously. I don't know exactly why but reading her posts and the way she refers to the doombots/townies it just sounds like someone pretending to be something they're not, maybe I'm misreading her but that's the vibe I've been getting this entire time. that and she had virtually no interest in participating in the thread until after pressure was put onto her.

You know, who did Smile investigate? He haven't told us.